Big fat list of Mental Models

Mental Models: The Best Way to Make Intelligent Decisions by Shane Parrish is a better list, and I simply refer to it now.

This is a collection of mental models I’ve read about. Makes for a good reference for the times I’m always stuck in Déjà vu, thinking “what’s the term?”. I will grow, evolve and categorize this list largely trying to understand / answer “what can I do to minimize negative externalities?”, a meta-mental model for decision making in life.

This is a fat list and the purpose is not to memorize these. Instead, consciously aiming to learn them, utilize them as much as possible to fit things happening around into a model. This is reductive and simplifying, but that is precisely what models are for - to allow us focus on things that matter without the unnecessary details.

We don’t become better at things we do – we become better at things we pay attention to while we’re doing them

Uncategorized List🔗

• Inverse Thinking - be wrong less
  • unforced errors
  • antifragile - gain from disorder
• Arguing from first principles
• Minimum Viable Product
  • de-risking - weed out untrue assumptions
  • premature optimization
• Occam’s razor - as simple as it can be, but no simpler
  • conjunction fallacy - latching on to unnecessary assumptions
  • overfitting
• Frame of Reference
  • framing
  • nudging
  • anchoring
• Availability Bias
  • filter bubble
  • echo chambers
• The Third Story
  • most respectful interpretation - benefit of the doubt
  • Hanlon’s razor - malice vs carelessness
  • fundamental attribution error
  • self-serving bias
  • veil of ignorance
• Birth lottery
  • just world hypothesis
  • victim-blame
  • learned helplessness
• Paradigm Shift
  • Semmelweis reflex
  • confirmation bias
  • backfire effect
  • disconfirmation bias
  • cognitive dissonance
  • thinking gray
  • Devil’s advocate position
• Intuition
  • proximate cause
  • root cause
  • optimistic probability bias
• Tyranny of small decisions - “death by a thousand cuts”
  • tragedy of the commons
  • public goods
  • herd immunity
• Externalities (internalizing negative externalities)
  • spillover effects
  • Coase theorem - “property rights, rational actors, low transaction costs”
  • cap-and-trade
• Asymmetric information
  • Moral Hazard
  • Principal-agent problem
  • adverse selection
• Market failure
  • government / political failure
• Goodhart’s law
  • perverse incentives
  • cobra effect
  • Sreisand effect
  • hydra effect
• Observer effect
  • chilling effect
  • collateral damage
  • blowback
• Boiling frog
  • short-termism
  • technical debt
  • path dependence
• Preserving optionality
  • precautionary principle
• Hick’s law
  • Information overload
  • analysis paralysis
  • perfect is the enemy of good
  • reversible / irreversible decisions
  • paradox of choice
  • decision fatigue
• Murphy’s law
• North star
• Compound interest
• Two-front wars
  • Multitasking
  • deep work
  • Eisenhower Decision Matrix
  • Sayre’s Law
    • Parkinson’s law of triviality
    • bike-shedding
• Opportunity cost
  • opportunity cost of capital
  • best alternative to negotiated agreement
• Leverage
  • Pareto principle
  • power law distribution
• Learning curve effect
• Law of diminishing returns
  • Law of diminishing utility
  • negative returns
  • burnout
• Present bias
  • net present value
  • hyperbolic discounting
• Default effect - path of least resistance
• Parkinson’s Law
• Hofstadter’s Law
• Loss aversion
  • sunk-cost fallacy
• Design pattern
  • anti-pattern
  • brute force
  • heuristic
  • black boxes
  • parallel processing
  • divide and conquer
• Economies of scale
• Reframe the problem
• Natural selection
• Scientific method
• Inertia
  • strategy tax
  • Shirky principle
  • Lindy effect
• Momentum
  • catalyst
  • forcing function
  • activation energy
  • flywheel
• Homeostasis
  • Chatelier’s principle
• Hysteresis
• Critical mass
  • tipping point
  • chain reaction
• Technology adoption lifecycle - innovators, early adopters, early majority, late majority, laggards
• Metcalfe’s law
  • network effects
• Butterfly effect
  • luck surface area
  • entropy
• Black-and-white fallacy
  • in-group favoritism
  • out-group bias
  • zero-sum
  • win-win
• Grass-is-greener mentality
• Maslow’s hammer
• Cost-benefit analysis
  • Sensitivity analysis
• Garbage in, garbage out
• Utilitarianism
• Black swan events
• Systems thinking
• Unknown unknowns
• Counterfactual thinking
• Lateral thinking
• Groupthink
  • Bandwagon effect
• Divergent thinking
  • Convergent thinking
• Crowdsourcing
• Game theory
  • arms Race
  • prisoner’s dilemma
  • Nash equilibrium
  • influence models
    • reciprocity
    • commitment
    • liking
    • social proof
    • scarcity
    • authority
• Social norms vs market norms
• Ultimatum game
  • distributive / procedural justice
  • fair share / share
  • appeal to emotion
• FUD - fear, uncertainty, doubt
• straw man
  • ad hominem
• Trojan horse
  • bait and switch
  • Potemkin village
• Mutually assured destruction
  • deterrence
    • carrot-and-stick
  • containment
    • flypaper theory
• Domino effect
  • slippery slope argument
  • broken windows theory
  • gateway drug theory
• Loss leader strategy
  • appeasement
• Red line
  • nuclear option
  • zero-tolerance policy
  • call your bluff
  • war of attrition
  • guerrilla warfare
    • punching above your weight
  • generals always fight the last war - default to strategies in the past
• Endgame
  • exit strategy
  • Hail Mary pass
  • burn the boats
• Joy’s law
  • 10x team
  • introverts / extroverts
  • generalists / specialists
  • commandos / infantry / police
  • foxes / hedgehogs
• Peter principle
  • Managing to the person
  • strategy vs tactics
  • institutional knowledge
  • unicorn candidate
  • directly responsible individual
  • bystander effect
  • power vacuum
• Deliberate practice
  • spacing effect
• Challenge directory - care personally
  • radical candor
  • ruinous empathy
  • manipulative insincerity
  • obnoxious aggression
• Consequence-conviction matrix
• Fixed vs growth mindset
  • Pygmalion effect
  • golem effect
  • impostor syndrome
  • Dunning-Kruger effect
• Maslow’s hierarchy of needs
• Hindsight bias
• Winning hearts and minds
• Culture
  • high-context / low-context
  • tight / loose
  • heirachical / egalitarian
  • collectivist / individualist
  • objective / subjective
  • loyalists / mercenaries
• Manager’s vs Maker’s schedule
• Dunbar’s number
• Boots on the ground
• Mythical man-month
• Market power
  • arbitrage
  • sustainable competitive advantage
  • first-mover advantage / disadvantage
  • product/market fit
  • (open) Secret
  • resonance
• Consensus-contrarian matrix
• Homebrew computer club
• Why now? Now what?
  • simultaneous invention
• Observe / orient / decide / act
  • pivot
• What type of customer are you hunting?
  • personas
  • bright spot
  • beachhead
• Idea maze
• Heat-seeking missiles
• Moat
  • lock-in
  • switching costs
  • barriers to entry / exit
  • regulatory capture
• Winner-takes-most markets
• Crossing the chasm
• Cargo cult
• Circle of competence
• Overview effect